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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society Vol.43 No.2
- 발행연도
- 2007.5
- 수록면
- 91 - 99 (9page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
A statistical model for the prediction of tropical cyclone activity has been developed and applied to the western North Pacific. It aims to predict the number of tropical cyclones and the overall tropical cyclone activity index over a certain period. The model is based upon regression analysis. The predictors for the regression model are obtained by examining the lag correlations between the predictands and the synoptic variables such as the sea surface temperature, the 850 hPa temperature, the 850 hPa meridional wind, and the 500 hPa geopotential. Even though the current model is a statistical model based on the regression analysis, there is a unique difference from the conventional regression model. The latter is simply the best fit of the past data, while in the former we select the combination of predictors that yielded the best prediction performance in the past among all possible combinations out of all potential predictors. We call them smart predictors. Predictands in this study are the number of total tropical cyclones over the whole year, over the three summer months (June-August), or the fall (September-November) period. It is found that the performance of the model has been successful in the seasonal prediction of the number of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Especially the predicted results for the tropical cyclones that will affect Korea are delivered to the Korea Meteorological Administration and thereby serve as guidance when producing the official forecast for the tropical cyclones in the three-month seasonal outlook.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Prediction of the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific
4. Summary and suggestion for future investigation
Acknowledgments
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (12)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2002 / Improving the detection and tracking of tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models 17 : 152 ~ 1162
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2004 / Formation of tropical storms in an atmospheric general circulation model 56A : 56 ~ 67
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 1995 / Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric qua- si-biennial oscillation 123 : 2567 ~ 2571
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 1998 / Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea 13 : 997 ~ 1004
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2001 / Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific 16 : 491 ~ 498
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2004 / Formation of tropical storms in an atmospheric general circulation model 56A : 56 ~ 67
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 1995 / Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric qua- si-biennial oscillation 123 : 2567 ~ 2571
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 1998 / Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea 13 : 997 ~ 1004
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - / 2001 / Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific 16 : 491 ~ 498
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2009-453-016240857