지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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초록· 키워드
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This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea’s won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries’ GDP could have a negative impact and Korea’s GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.
목차
Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구 검토
Ⅲ. 모형설정 및 자료설명
Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과
Ⅴ. 결론 및 시사점
References
참고문헌 (29)
참고문헌 신청
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 1985 / Devaluation and the J-Curve : Some Evidence from LDCs / The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(3):500~504
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 1994 / Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation : Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration / Eastern Economic Journal 20(4):453~464
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee / 2019 / Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners / Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 24(1):66~81
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 1999 / Bilateral J-Curve between U. S., and Her Trading Partners / Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 135(1):156~165
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 2003 / A Disaggregated Approach to Test the J-Curve Phenomenon : Japan versus Her Major Trading Partners / Journal of Economics and Finance 27(1):102~113
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 1994 / Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation : Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration / Eastern Economic Journal 20(4):453~464
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee / 2019 / Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners / Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 24(1):66~81
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 1999 / Bilateral J-Curve between U. S., and Her Trading Partners / Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 135(1):156~165
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. / 2003 / A Disaggregated Approach to Test the J-Curve Phenomenon : Japan versus Her Major Trading Partners / Journal of Economics and Finance 27(1):102~113
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2019-324-000483821