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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 질병관리본부 Osong Public Health and Research Persptectives Osong Public Health and Research Persptectives Vol.8 No.6
- 발행연도
- 2017.1
- 수록면
- 373 - 376 (4page)
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초록· 키워드
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Objectives: The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy. Methods: The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA. Results: The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease. Conclusion: Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.
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참고문헌 (5)
참고문헌 신청
Yunhwan Kim / 2016 / The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea / Osong Public Health and Research Persptectives 7(1):49~55
L. Stone / 2000 / Theoretical examination of the pulse vaccination policy in the SIR epidemic model / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31(4-5):207~215
Victor Virlogeux / 2016 / Association between Severity of MERS-CoV Infection and Incubation Period / Emerging Infectious Diseases 22(3):526~528
이동호 / 2017 / OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS FOR THE MERS-COV OUTBREAK: SOUTH KOREA PERSPECTIVES / Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 21(3):143~154
Daniel T. Gillespie / 1977 / Exact stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions / The Journal of Physical Chemistry 81(25):2340~2361
L. Stone / 2000 / Theoretical examination of the pulse vaccination policy in the SIR epidemic model / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31(4-5):207~215
Victor Virlogeux / 2016 / Association between Severity of MERS-CoV Infection and Incubation Period / Emerging Infectious Diseases 22(3):526~528
이동호 / 2017 / OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS FOR THE MERS-COV OUTBREAK: SOUTH KOREA PERSPECTIVES / Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 21(3):143~154
Daniel T. Gillespie / 1977 / Exact stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions / The Journal of Physical Chemistry 81(25):2340~2361
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